February WTI crude oil (CLG25) today is up +0.72 (+1.02%), and February RBOB gasoline (RBG25) is up +0.0289 (+1.47%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices today are moderately higher, with crude posting a 5-week high and gasoline posting a 2-week high.  Crude has carryover support from last Friday when the weekly EIA report showed that US crude inventories fell by -4.24 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of -600,000 bbl.  Also, today's +18% surge in nat-gas prices to a 1-year high is supporting gains in crude after the National Weather Service forecast colder-than-normal weather across the US East and Midwest in its 8-14 day outlook, an abrupt shift from what's until now been a mostly mild early winter in the US.  Today, dollar strength and weakness in stocks limited gains in crude prices.

Today's US economic news was mixed for crude prices.  On the positive side, Nov pending home sales rose +2.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m.  Also, the Dec Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook survey unexpectedly rose +5.1 to a 2-3/4 year high of 3.4, stronger than expectations of a decline to -3.0.  On the negative side, the Dec MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell -3.3 to a 7-month low of 36.9, weaker than expectations of an increase to 43.0.

Oil prices continue to be underpinned by global political uncertainty after President-Elect Trump recently threatened to take over the Panama Canal if transit rates are not cut, adding to his various threats for tariffs and increased sanctions.

The outlook for new sanctions on Iranian and Russian crude exports could limit global oil supplies and is bullish for prices.  Mike Walz, President-elect Trump's pick for national security adviser, vowed a return to "maximum pressure" on Iran, and the Biden administration said it is considering new, harsher sanctions on Russian crude oil.

A drop in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices.  Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -16% w/w to 60.27 million bbl in the week ended December 27.

Crude found support earlier this month after OPEC+ pushed back a planned hike of its crude production by +180,000 bpd from January to April and said it would unwind its crude output cuts at a slower pace than planned.  Also, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it will delay the planned 300,000 bpd increase in its crude production target from January to April.  OPEC+ had previously agreed to restore 2.2 million bpd of output in monthly installments between January and late 2025.  However, that is now pushed back until September 2026.  OPEC Nov crude production rose +120,000 bpd to 27.02 million bpd.

Escalation of the Ukraine-Russian war is supportive of crude prices.  Russia launched a new hypersonic missile into the city of Dnipro late last month, following Ukraine's expanded use of Western-provided long-range missiles against targets inside Russia.  Also, Russian President Putin warned that Russia could strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv with ballistic missiles.  Putin also approved an updated nuclear doctrine that expands the conditions for Russia to use nuclear weapons, including in response to a conventional attack on its soil.  

Crude oil demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices.  According to data compiled by Bloomberg, China's Nov apparent oil demand fell -2.14% y/y to 14.013 million bpd, and Jan-Nov apparent oil demand was down -3.26% y/y to 13.996 million bpd.  China is the world's second-largest crude consumer.

A decline in Russian crude exports is supportive of crude.  Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports fell by -170,000 bpd to 2.97 million bpd in the week to December 15.

Last Friday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of December 20 were -6.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -8.2% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending December 20 fell -0.1% w/w to 13.585 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending December 27 were unchanged at 483 rigs, modestly above the 2-3/4 year low of 477 rigs posted last month.  The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past two years from the 4-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.