Valued at a market cap of $9.7 billion, The Mosaic Company (MOS) produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The Tampa, Florida-based company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, MicroEssentials ammoniated phosphate products, and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients under the Biofos and Nexfos brands.  

Shares of this chemicals company have lagged behind the broader market over the past 52 weeks. MOS has gained 4.9% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has soared 8.2%. However, on a YTD basis, the stock is up 23.9%, considerably outpacing SPX’s 4.7% loss.  

Zooming in further, MOS has outpaced the First Trust Indxx Global Agriculture ETF’s (FTAG) 1.4% decline over the past 52 weeks and 7.6% uptick on a YTD basis.  

On May 6, MOS released its mixed Q1 earnings results after market close. The company’s revenue declined 2.2% from the year-ago quarter to $2.6 billion, primarily due to a fall in potash segment sales, driven largely by lower selling prices. The top-line figure missed the consensus estimates by 1.9%.  

Nonetheless, on a positive note, its operating earnings surged 95.8% from the prior-year quarter to $338.5 million, supported by significant improvements in operational efficiency and ongoing cost-reduction efforts. Although its adjusted earnings dropped 24.6% to $0.49 per share due to a decline in adjusted EBITDA, the result still exceeded Wall Street estimates by a notable margin of 25.6%. Additionally, MOS raised its fiscal 2025 potash production forecast to a range of 9 to 9.4 million tonnes, aiming to meet strong international demand and take advantage of favorable pricing. 

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect MOS’ EPS to grow 11.1% year over year to $2.20. The company’s earnings surprise history is disappointing. It missed the consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, while exceeding on another occasion.  

Among the 17 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy” which is based on nine “Strong Buy,” and eight “Hold” ratings.   

This configuration is slightly more bullish than a month ago, with eight analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy” rating.  

On Apr. 22, Barclays PLC (BCS) analyst Benjamin Theurer maintained a “Buy” rating on MOS and set a price target of $33, which indicates an 8.4% potential upside from the current levels.  

The mean price target of $33.23 represents a 9.1% potential upside from MOS’ current price levels, while the Street-high price target of $44 suggests a notable upside potential of 44.5%.