Nvidia (NVDA) will release its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 28. As the flagbearer of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade, the company’s earnings have attracted a great deal of attention over the last two years. A lot of euphoria gets built heading into the confessional, and many investors take bullish positions in the stock ahead of the report.

Nvidia hasn’t disappointed and has consistently reported better-than-expected results over the last many quarters. Beating consensus estimates has been more of a norm than an exception for Nvidia, and the company’s revenues trailed estimates only once in the last five years.

It has also guided over Street estimates for the last two years, thanks to the seemingly unending appetite for its chips. However, the post-earnings price action has been disappointing over the last few quarters, and Nvidia shares have seen downward price action following the reports.

The divergence can be attributed to sky-high expectations as markets want a lot more than a simple earnings beat from the Jensen Huang-led company. In a nutshell, “great,” not “good,” is what markets anticipate from Nvidia’s reports. Specifically, while Nvidia beat earnings in the previous quarter, the margin of that beat was the lowest in two years, and the stock fell following the report.

NVDA Stock Forecast Before Q1 Earnings Report

This time around, analyst action has been quite muted on Nvidia heading into the earnings. While Bank of America raised NVDA’s target price from $150 to $160 earlier this month, UBS lowered its from $180 to $175. TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter doubts Nvidia’s upcoming earnings would help move the stock much, even as he said that NVDA remained a “top compute pick.” In his note, Buchalter said, “Recent earnings calls have not been a meaningful positive catalyst for the stock, even with consistently positive numbers. Loop Capital, meanwhile, stuck its neck out and advised buying Nvidia shares ahead of its earnings.

The overall sentiment toward the stock remains bullish, though, and of the 44 analysts covering the stock, 37 rate it as a “Strong Buy” and two as a “Moderate Buy.” Four analysts rate NVDA as a “Hold,” while one analyst rates it as a “Strong Sell.”

The stock’s mean target price is $166.22, which is 26.1% higher than the May 21 closing price. Nvidia’s Street-high and Street-low target prices are $220 and $100, respectively.

Nvidia Q1 Earnings Estimates

During its Q4 earnings call, Nvidia guided for Q1 revenues of $43 billion at the midpoint. The company expects its GAAP margins to come in between 70.1% and 71.1% in the fiscal first quarter. The company’s gross margins have come off slightly as it transitions to the Blackwell chip.

Consensus estimates call for Nvidia’s Q1 revenues to rise 65.7% to $43.12 billion. Analysts expect Nvidia to guide for revenues of $46 billion for the current quarter, which would imply year-over-year growth of over 53%.

Nvidia is expected to earn $0.82 per share in fiscal Q1, a 41.4% growth over the corresponding quarter last year.

Nvidia Is Losing Market Share in China

Recent earnings have shown that Big Tech earnings are not backing off their AI capex, at least yet. Meta Platforms (META) went a step further and increased its capex guidance as it doubled down on AI investments. China, meanwhile, remains a problem area for Nvidia, and U.S. chip export curbs could hamper the company’s prospects in that market structurally. Huang has lashed out at U.S. chip export restrictions, calling them a “failure.”

Speaking at the Computex AI trade show in Taiwan, he said that Nvidia’s market share in China has fallen drastically from 95% to 50% after the restrictions. Domestic Chinese companies have been gaining at Nvidia’s expense. Huang particularly singled out Huawei, saying the company is “incredible in computing and network technology.” 

Notably, Huawei survived a near-death blow after U.S. sanctions were levied against it. Huawei made a “chip breakthrough” that helped it become the third-largest player in the Chinese smartphone market last year, mainly eating into Apple’s (AAPL) market share in the country. If Huawei can have a similar “breakthrough” in AI chips, it could challenge Nvidia’s dominance in the market, not only in China but also in other countries. 

Can Nvidia Stock Rise to Its Record Highs After the Earnings?

While Nvidia stock has rebounded from the sub-$90 levels it briefly fell to last month and has almost recouped its YTD losses, it remains around 13% below its record highs. Price movements of that degree are not uncommon after Nvidia’s earnings, but I don’t expect Nvidia shares to hit their record highs following the report, nor do I expect a big crash given the muted price action heading into the report.