Anyone who has seen The Big Short movie should recognize Michael Burry, the brilliant and unconventional investor who shot to fame for accurately predicting the U.S. housing market collapse ahead of the 2008 financial crisis. A former Stanford neurology resident, Burry first built a reputation by sharing stock ideas on internet forums back in the early days of online investing. His bet against subprime mortgages made hundreds of millions in profits for his hedge fund, Scion Capital, and cemented his status as one of the sharpest minds on Wall Street.

Fast forward to today, and Burry is once again making bold moves through his Scion Asset Management. In the first quarter, Burry shocked the market by dumping nearly all of his fund’s stocks and loading up on put options. But amid this sweeping selloff, one surprising name that survived in his portfolio was Estée Lauder (EL). Despite being deep in the red this year, the struggling beauty giant has held a firm place in Burry’s portfolio.

According to Scion Asset Management’s latest 13-F filing, Burry now owns a whopping 200,000 shares of Estée Lauder, valued at roughly $13.2 million. That’s twice as many shares as he held just a few months earlier, at the end of December. Such a bold move signals serious conviction from a legendary investor known for spotting value where others don’t. So, when someone with Burry’s track record takes such a stance like this, it’s worth paying attention.

About Estée Lauder Stock

New York-based The Estée Lauder Companies (EL) is a global powerhouse in beauty, known for its extensive portfolio of skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care brands. With products available in around 150 countries, the company spans a wide range of well-known names, from Clinique and MAC to La Mer and Tom Ford, making it a major player worldwide.

With a market cap of around $22.9 billion, this beauty powerhouse has seen its shares tumble 15% in 2025 as the company faces multiple headwinds from soft consumer demand in key markets like China, ongoing tariff worries, and the challenge of adapting to rapidly changing consumer preferences. 

Looking at the bigger picture, the stock has plunged more than 50% over the past year, a stark contrast to the broader S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 10% gain, underscoring the steep hurdles this iconic brand must overcome.

At 45.3 times forward earnings and 1.52 times sales, the stock may appear pricey next to sector peers. But compare that to its own five-year averages of 45.84x earnings and 4.70x sales, and the picture changes. Valuations have meaningfully compressed, signaling that the stock has come down from its historical highs. For investors on the hunt for bargains, this reset could mark a compelling entry point into a long-standing industry leader.

Estée Lauder Tops Q3 Estimates

Earlier this month, Estée Lauder delivered its fiscal 2025 third quarter earnings, and while the numbers showed ongoing struggles, they still managed to deliver a surprise. Revenue fell 10% year-over-year to $3.6 billion, just slightly ahead of Wall Street’s estimates. But the real shocker came on the bottom line. Adjusted earnings per share plunged 33% from the prior year to $0.65, yet still crushed expectations by a jaw-dropping 124.1%. 

Estée Lauder’s latest quarterly breakdown shows that its core product lines are still grappling with turbulence. Skincare sales, the company’s largest segment, dropped 12% annually to $1.8 billion, weighed down by persistent weakness in Asia’s travel retail market and sluggish demand for high-end brands like Estée Lauder and La Mer.

China’s muted consumer sentiment added further pressure, though the lower cost of sales offered a bit of relief. Fragrance, typically a bright spot in the beauty sector, also stumbled, with sales slipping 3% to $557 million, mainly due to softer demand in Asia. Haircare also struggled, with revenue down 12% to $126 million, as weakness in salon and freestanding store channels continued to suppress growth.

Estée Lauder is bracing for an 8% to 9% dip in net sales for fiscal 2025, but there’s a clear sense of optimism on the horizon. CEO Stéphane de La Faverie remains confident that top-line growth will return in fiscal 2026, especially if tariff-related pressures ease. As the company pushes forward with its strategic reset in travel retail to better align with shifting industry dynamics, the foundation for a long-awaited recovery is beginning to take shape.

Does Burry’s Bold Bet Signal Faith in Estée Lauder’s Revival?

Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management has quietly doubled its stake in Estée Lauder, just as the iconic beauty brand embarks on a major turnaround under new leadership. Since stepping in as CEO this January, Stéphane de La Faverie has wasted no time in tackling the company’s challenges head-on. 

With sales faltering in key markets like North America and China, Estée Lauder is rolling out fresh product launches and introducing upscale pricing tiers in a bid to reenergize consumer demand and reposition itself in the luxury beauty space. Burry’s move hasn’t gone unnoticed by market watchers. 

For instance, Angeli Gianchandani, a global brand marketing expert at NYU, views the investment as a signal of confidence in Estée Lauder’s potential to reassert itself as a top-tier player in the global beauty industry. Meanwhile, Morningstar analyst Dan Su adds a more measured take, suggesting the increased stake reflects optimism about the CEO’s turnaround strategy, though he notes the investment size remains modest relative to Scion’s broader portfolio. 

Still, with a legendary contrarian like Burry stepping in, Estée Lauder’s rebound story is starting to command fresh attention.

What Do Analysts Expect for Estée Lauder Stock?

While Michael Burry doubles down with confidence on Estée Lauder, Wall Street is keeping its guard up, with the consensus leaning toward a cautious “Hold” rating overall. Of the 26 analysts offering recommendations, three give it a solid “Strong Buy,” one suggests a “Moderate Buy,” and the remaining 22 give a “Hold.” 

The average analyst price target of $67.26 indicates marginal potential upside from the current price levels. The Street-high price target of $100 suggests that EL could rally more than 50% from here.